|
Who won in Basra?
|
|
Words matter - especially when we try to determine the "victor" in a negotiated end to an armed conflict. Here is an example. In the second half of March, 2008, the "Mahdi Army," a militia controlled by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, began resisting efforts by the Iraqi Army and Iraqi police forces to arrest people identified (by the government) as criminal militia members. On Wednesday, March 23, 2009, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki issued an ultimatum which, according to the New York Times, required Shiite Militias in Basra to "put down their weapons within 72 hours." By Sunday, March 27, al-Sadr called on his followers to stop fighting. Although al-Sadr coupled that order with a request that the government stop the raids against his militia members, the government of al-maliki indicated that it plans to continue pursuing people on its lengthy list of thugs and criminals. Based upon the action demanded by al-Maliki (to "put down their weapons") and the action that followed (the cessation of fighting by al-Sadr's Mahdi Army), we have no reason to credit al-Sadr with a victory in this skirmish. Nevertheless, followers of al-Sadr and critics of the Bush administration (i.e., most of the world news media) were quick to characterize the series of events as a disastrous and humiliating defeat for the Iraqi Prime Minister. Generally, the news media seemed to feel that militia members had to turn in their weapons if a real victory was to be achieved by the Iraqi government. For example, Time magazine noted that, despite al-Maliki's ultimatum, the Mahdi Army "explicitly reserved the right to hold onto its weapons." This statement suggests confusion on the part of the magazine. Al-Maliki never ordered the militias to turn in their weapons - he said they must "put down their weapons." There is a vast difference to people familiar with the English language, and one would hope that Time magazine would appreciate the distinction. The above notwithstanding, the militias are a serious problem for the Iraqi government, and it is not clear if the Iraqi armed forces have the motivation and capability to defeat them. |
|
Public Program Testing Organization
©2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
|